Irish Unification Referendum Should Not Become 'Another Brexit', Analysts Alert

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."